Forrester Research has published a revised forecast for the U.S. consumer tablet market today, noting that its initial predictions from last year were “too conservative.”
Indeed, Apple’s introduction of the iPad changed the game, so to speak, for tablet adoption, and many people are predicting 2011 – or least CES – to be replete with tablet-related announcements.
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Forrester has revised its forecast upward to 10.3 million units for 2010 and says that it expects sales to more than double in 2011 to 24.1 million units. Of these sales, most will be iPads, as Forrester predicts Apple’s dominance over the tablet market will continue through 2012.
In tweaking its prediction, Forrester says it has changed some of its assumptions around replacements rates that “we think will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs.” Calling these “lifestyle devices,” Forrester says it thinks people will more readily purchase replacements and upgrades than they would for a “utilitarian device” like a PC.
Do you agree with Forrester’s new figures? Still too conservative? Or has Forrester overestimated the tablet’s future success?
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